Mitigating risks through strategic planning

Johan Kotze, Dutoit Agri Head: Eastern Cape, shares some insights and strategies to mitigate climate change. By Elise-Marie Steenkamp.

Dutoit Agri, which farms in several different areas of the country, has climate change as a point on its strategic business-plan agenda. Dutoit Agri has seen the effects of climate change first-hand and has adopted pre- and postharvest strategies.

Pre- and postharvest

“We have less winter chill. This means we need to spray more chemical agents to keep trees blooming evenly,” says Kotze. “Uneven flowering leads to uneven fruit ripeness on trees and uneven ripeness in the cartons. Not something that you want.”

According to Kotze, they are also seeing higher temperatures at night. “Blush varieties need cool night-time temperatures to develop the right colour requirements. This is a problem with blush varieties. The warmer it is, the poorer the colour.

“If temperatures at harvest time are not optimal, we wait for the colour, but as a result, fruit is picked more mature and has poorer and shorter storage capacity. These fruits must be marketed over a shorter time. But the price difference between better and poorer coloured fruit is almost double.”

The risk of harvesting at post-optimum maturity is also increased by warmer springs that advance the harvesting date. “Growers need to do maturity indexing more frequently to determine the optimum picking date accurately,” says Kotze. “The picking window must be managed carefully.”

In addition, higher temperatures also cause smaller fruit sizes. Dutoit has seen fruit size — and the potential for premium prices — plummet during heatwaves. “The bottom line is, bigger and redder is better,” says Kotze.

The rainy season is another aspect to keep in mind. “Although we still get average rainfall in the Western Cape, nowadays, the rainy season starts and ends later. We also get larger amounts of rain at a time, sometimes flooding, like recently in the Western and Eastern Cape. In the Eastern Cape, droughts last longer and are often followed by mini floods. Hail frequency and damage are also increasing.”

The warmer climate is pest friendly. “We get more pests from spring to harvest time. For example, we see more codling moth generations in a season.”

Climate change costs

Negotiating climate change has a definite impact on budgets. “Spraying more costs money,” says Kotze. “Extra actions that need to be taken during flowering also have financial implications.”

According to Kotze, the input costs to ensure fruit quality and size are increasing. Expensive plant growth regulators are used to compensate for climate shenanigans.

“If a new orchard is established under nets, there are additional costs, which means it could take two years longer to recover input costs and break even.”

Another climate change ruffian is hail. “Hail damages young trees’ bark and disrupts the onset of full production. Trees recover, but this could take a year or so if the damage is severe, as damaged branches need to be removed. A hail-damaged crop is a loss of income, so your break-even year for that orchard is delayed.”

According to Kotze, climate change risks are tricky when it comes to insurance. “Producers must weigh risks against the cost of insurance. Many growers take out insurance against hail. If you have damage, it is better to have 100% damage and lose your entire crop; the payout is better.

“Anything less than 80% damage, and you must make your sums. One must also look at the financial risks of losing early cultivars versus later-season high-value crops — better to insure those than the earlier crops. Premiums are sky-high. In the end, it is a financial decision,” says Kotze.

Everyone should plan

In general, the effect of climate change on the fruit industry is that the profitability of fruit growing will come under more pressure due to higher input costs and additional costs to produce quality fruit. Kotze thinks that the fruit basket will change in certain areas as growers will convert to crops that are more adaptable to specific areas.

“Everyone should be planning for climate change,” he says. Currently, Dutoit does not have a timeframe for implementing climate-smart practices. “It is an important agenda point on our annual farm planning talks and will stay there in future,” says Kotze.

At Dutoit Agri, they plan for every climate scenario during the production process, emphasising the utilisation of microclimates. They focus on:

• Managing water to provide for dry years.
• Balancing hectares planted and resources.
• Relocation of orchards and planting with the future in mind; right cultivar choice, especially in warmer areas.
• Covering risks with netting and type of irrigation and measuring/monitoring/effectiveness of irrigation.
• Keeping track of climate data and using climate maps of farms.

“You need to know your farm and where you can plant what. Don’t guess. Know where the frost areas are. There is technology available to help determine microclimates that reduce risks. Use it,” advises Kotze.

Regarding water use, Kotze warns that it is not business as usual. “You cannot plant 100% of your dam capacity. You need to ‘transfer water’ for the next season and take care of your ‘water savings account’.” At the end of the season, he says most producers want to be in a position where they have a reserve capacity for the next season.

“Invest in water resources and ensure that you have enough storage capacity to manage the seasonal water transfer and mitigate drought. If you are in a frost-risk area, you might need to consider overhead irrigation. It uses more water but is better for frost management.

“Look at your cultivar choices and adapt according to your climate. Pick cultivars that flower late if you are in a high-risk frost area and can colour despite climate disruptions. Invest in nets and support systems and do your homework regarding rootstock choices under netting.”

Testing, testing, testing

At Dutoit, nothing is left to chance. Kotze says they are testing new cultivars and product lines over extended periods up to the semi-commercial level. “We have to understand how these cultivars perform over longer periods and bigger areas before deciding to establish it on a large scale.”

In addition, they are looking at alternative crops, such as cherries and kiwis. “Cherries have shorter growing periods, require less water, and are a high-value product. If you have the right cultivars and climatic conditions, it could improve profits.”

Does this mean pome and stone fruit will be phased out? Absolutely not, says Kotze. He is confident that deciduous-fruit farming will continue despite climate challenges. “We are in a unique position and have enough tools in our toolbox and adequate areas to successfully farm pome and stone fruit. South Africa is at the forefront of planning and adapting to climate change. I believe we have a great future ahead.”