What consumers want

Understanding how shoppers in the United States buy apples holds valuable lessons for the South African industry. By Anna Mouton.

“We have to think about what will get an apple into a consumer’s mouth,” said Tom Barnes, President and CEO of Category Partners. “We can’t only grow varieties that give us good yields and store well. Of course, that’s important because we all need to make money, but those can’t be the only drivers.”

Category Partners is a data analytics and consumer research company focused on fresh produce. “We help growers, shippers, and associations to be successful by understanding the consumer and the trends,” explained Barnes.

For his presentation at the 2026 Hortgro Technical Symposium, Barnes reviewed consumer behaviour using data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, the United States Department of Agriculture, the University of Michigan, and global marketing research firm NIQ (formerly AC Nielsen).

Inside the consumer’s mind

“The economy is the first thing you must understand to understand the consumer,” said Barnes. “This resonates no matter which country you’re in.”

Since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, inflation has surged worldwide, and the prices of consumer goods continue to rise amid ongoing global disruptions, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East.

In the United States, the consumer price index has increased by 27% and the index for fresh fruits and vegetables 19% since July 2020. “When consumers go to purchase food, they’re paying a lot more for it today than they were five years ago,” said Barnes.

Unsurprisingly, consumers are pessimistic about their financial outlook, with consumer confidence close to rock bottom. In the United States, consumer confidence correlates with fuel prices, which spiked during the early stages of the war in Iran.

Given these economic pressures, more than 50% of consumers select their grocery store based on prices, making it the most common feature influencing their decision. However, the quality of fresh foods is the third most common factor, cited by nearly 40% of consumers as a consideration in choosing a grocery store.

When consumers were asked to rank the importance of different departments in their decision about where to shop, fresh produce took first place (rated number one by 74% of respondents).

“The fact that perishables are driving feet into the retailers should be very heartening to us,” commented Barnes. “Price is still king, but the quality of fresh food is very important.”

Fresh apple performance

“Apple volumes and price have been flat over the past five years,” said Barnes, referring to retail sales from April 2021 to April 2026. “And, for the past 15 years, we’ve seen flat to declining apple consumption in the United States.”

Interestingly, when looking at the performance of different apple products over the past five years, the volume of dried apples has grown by more than 8%, while fresh apples have remained stable, and volumes of sauce, juice, and cider have declined.

Barnes attributes the stagnation in the sale of fresh apples partly to competition, as retailers now offer high-quality fruits such as berries year-round. However, he suspects that too many apple cultivars also create a problem.

“In the United States, every retailer carries 9–13 different apple varieties, mostly red, pretty much at any time during the year,” he said. “So, the consumer has a hard time discerning what they should be eating.”

Additionally, domestic apple shipments for the past five years correlate strongly with retail sales, indicating that retail sales track supply. “There are ways we can buck that trend,” said Barnes. “We can push new varieties that the consumer demands.”

All apples are not equal

Price elasticity is a measure of how responsive consumers are to price. If a price is elastic, a price increase is directly correlated to a decrease in consumption. If a price is inelastic, people keep buying even when prices go up (for example, coffee prices are largely inelastic).

In the United States, apple prices are inelastic (though less so than coffee prices). On average, when apple prices go up by 10%, volumes decrease by 5%. But this effect depends on many factors, notably cultivar and retailer.

For example, Honeycrisp prices are slightly elastic (if prices go up 10%, volumes go down by 12%). When comparing Honeycrisp sales at the top 10 United States retailers, a 10% price increase translates into 7%–17% volume reductions.

Organic apples represent about 12% of all apples sold in the United States over the past 52 weeks. Nonetheless, organic apple prices are more elastic than those of conventional apples, and the organic sector is struggling amid inflationary pressures on consumers.

Another interesting trend is toward smaller bags (±1–2 kg), which are taking share away from bulk and larger bags (bigger than 2 kg).

“Younger consumers hate waste,” said Barnes. “So, they don’t buy as much when they go to the store but rather go more often.”

A story of two cultivars

According to Barnes, no conversation about apple cultivars is complete without mentioning WA 38 (marketed as Cosmic Crisp). Commercially released in 2019, WA 38 rapidly gained popularity, not least due to aggressive marketing.

“They tried to make sure the consumer knew there was a new variety coming, and what it was,” recalled Barnes. “When Cosmic Crisp came in, it was in high demand. If Gala was going for USD1.49, Cosmic Crisp was probably selling for USD2.99 to USD3.49.”

Initially, WA 38 yielded excellent returns to growers, leading more growers to plant more hectares and, ultimately, to higher volumes. Currently, it’s stocked by about two-thirds of retailers.

“The only problem is that now, if Gala costs USD1.49, then so does Cosmic Crisp, and it has become a commodity apple,” said Barnes. “It’s moving a lot of volume, so if that’s what you’re looking for, it’s a great success story.”

He contrasted WA 38 with B51 or CN 121 (marketed as SugarBee). Like WA 38, this is a Honeycrisp cross, said to have flavours of honey, caramel, and molasses.

“Only 32% of stores across America carry SugarBee. It can be difficult to find sometimes, and it’s always highly priced,” he said. “If Gala is USD1.49, SugarBee is probably USD2.99 to USD3.49. The group that controls SugarBee control how much is grown, so they control the price to the consumer.”

Barnes thinks there’s a lesson here. Rather than growing a cultivar, convincing a retailer to carry it, and hoping consumers will buy it (what he calls display and pray), the apple industry should actively market speciality apples directly to consumers, especially younger generations who are prepared to pay for experiences.

“Apples still have an incredible opportunity, and we can continue to work on consumption,” he concluded. “But we need to figure out what the consumer wants and grow that.”

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Watch this presentation on the Hortgro YouTube channel.