Disruption brings opportunities

What is South Africa doing to take advantage of upheavals in the global trade landscape? By Anna Mouton.

President Donald Trump’s efforts to make America great again in the face of China’s growing economic and political power are reshaping global trade relationships. Many countries are seeking to forge closer ties with new trade partners, creating opportunities for South Africa to expand its agricultural exports.

“South Africa’s agricultural sector is remarkable in terms of its size and export value,” said Wolfe Braude, who manages the Agbiz Fruit Desk. “Fruit makes up about 35% of our agricultural exports. In 2025, the value of fresh and dried deciduous-fruit exports equalled 70% of South Africa’s diamond exports.”

However, Braude believes there is scope for increasing our agricultural exports. Addressing the audience at the 2026 Hortgro Technical Symposium, he explained who Agbiz is, how the organisation is working to facilitate agricultural exports, and where South Africa fits into the global trade landscape.

Agbiz serves agriculture

Agbiz is the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. It is a voluntary organisation with about 100 members representing companies and industry associations, including Hortgro, across the agricultural value chain.

The primary purpose of Agbiz is to promote South African agribusiness, and it is mandated to advocate for an enabling environment on behalf of the industry. Its functions include liaising with the government and gathering and actioning economic, legal, and trade information.

“To this end, the Agbiz Fruit Desk was set up in 2019 to service the specialised needs of the fruit industry within the Agbiz and wider sectoral-policy environment,” said Braude. “It allows two-way traffic in which information from the fruit sector feeds into what Agbiz does, and vice versa.”

Among other activities, the Fruit Desk is supporting industry efforts to address logistical shortcomings, such as inefficient and dysfunctional ports, railways, and rural roads. Braude hopes to see more public-private partnerships, for example, a concession for the Cape Town container terminal.

“I like to call these logistics issues self-imposed trade barriers,” said Braude. “Colleagues experienced these barriers over the past four seasons in Cape Town, and it’s something Agbiz, together with Hortgro and the other fruit sector associations, is working on.”

The trade landscape

The primary topic of Braude’s presentation was shifting global trade relationships. “We’re in a time of change,” he said. “One of the drivers has been the increase in production capacity in China over the past two decades.”

Between 2000 and 2024, China overtook the United States and the European Union to become the dominant trade partner for most of Asia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Oceania, South America, and Africa.

In 2024, China’s total exports and imports were USD 6.2 trillion, the European Union’s were USD 5.4 trillion, and the United States’ were USD 5.3 trillion.

Braude also discussed BRICS. South Africa is one of the original BRICS members (the others are Brazil, Russia, India, and China). Currently, BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Indonesia. Several other countries are BRICS+ partners.

“If you look at all three layers of BRICS, those countries account for about 13% of South Africa’s total trade,” said Braude. “This is a tiny portion of their total agricultural imports, so there is significant growth potential.”

Closer to home, trade with SACU (the Southern African Customs Union, comprising Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa) constitutes about 17% of South Africa’s agricultural trade.

By comparison, Asia and the Middle East account for about 21% of South Africa’s agricultural exports, and the European Union accounts for about 19%.

New global partnerships

In Braude’s view, President Trump’s America First doctrine is the most profound reordering of global trade since the inception of the World Trade Organization (WTO). “The United States is not just pursuing tariff revenue,” he said. “They are pursuing market access as well.”

Given that the United States has declared multiple tariffs, countries are attempting to form new trade agreements or strengthen existing ones beyond the United States.

“This has triggered a lot of change in thinking around trade,” said Braude. “South Africa has also therefore started to seek out new trade partners, in line with the desire of business to enjoy the same duty-free market access as their competitors.”

Agbiz would like to see new markets opening and trade agreements with the Middle East and Asia. “As soon as you step east of Africa, our competitors have deals, but we haven’t had similar agreements,” said Braude.

Currently, the South African government is revisiting existing agreements, such as those with SACU, EFTA (European Free Trade Association), Mercosur (the Southern Common Market, a South American trade bloc), and the UK and European Union Economic Partnership Agreements.

Our government is also working toward agreements with new partners, including China and India. Negotiations with China are underway, and in 2025, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and the Department of Agriculture undertook trade missions to several countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East.

Additionally, a continental agreement with Africa is being implemented. “It’s the largest trade agreement outside the WTO,” said Braude. “There is huge potential, given that Africa imports about USD60 billion of agri-products annually. If South Africa isn’t selling them, someone else will.”

From agreements to markets

Among the many benefits of trade agreements, Braude singled out market access. As his audience knew, selling pome and stone fruit in other countries is contingent on meeting phytosanitary requirements, and negotiating the details can take years.

“The signing of a free trade agreement can accelerate sanitary and phytosanitary negotiations,” he said. “The phytosanitary agreements get carried on the tide.”

He concluded by summarising the status of trade arrangements with China, India, and the United States. South Africa is currently negotiating an Early Harvest Agreement with China under the China-Africa Economic Development Partnership Agreement. For now, South Africa, along with most African states, has been granted unilateral duty-free access to China for two years.

South Africa is also in talks with India about a Preferential Trade Agreement to promote bilateral trade.

Regarding the United States, the Trump administration’s early 2025 tariffs have been struck down by the United States Supreme Court, and the recent 10% replacement tariff was also declared invalid.

Meanwhile, AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act), intended to improve economic relations between the United States and sub-Saharan African countries, was extended to the end of 2026. Under AGOA, close to 70% of South African agricultural products are not subject to United States import tariffs.

It was clear from Braude’s presentation that global disruptions could open doors for South African exporters and that our government is engaged in several initiatives to expand and strengthen trade partnerships.

“Agbiz often highlights to the government that South African agriculture has run a trade surplus since the beginning of the 2000s,” said Braude. “A sector that pulls in money for the fiscus is a national asset.”

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Watch this presentation on the Hortgro YouTube channel.